Copenhagen and Climate change are words that you will hear constantly as we approach the end of this year. And it will be difficult to keep your head clear from the spin and facts.
This Sunday a Forum is organised at the Elder Hall by the Rotarians to Clear the Air over Climate Change and the significance of Copenhagen. A panel of experts from diverse fields will be present at the Forum to speak about the subject and look at the situation in as many applicable conditions that will affect people like you and me. To tell us more about this Forum Ian Carman is the Convener of the Forum and when asked about his credentials he revealed he is a mere mortal… So what got a mere mortal to get all fired up about Climate Change?
‘Politics Is Predictable’: PW Talks with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
by Parul Sehgal — Publishers Weekly, 7/13/2009
In The Predictioneer’s Game, Bueno de Mesquita illustrates, with a mathematical model that quantifies self-interest, how we can use game theory to predict—and influence—future events.
When did you become aware of game theory’s potential?
In my first semester of graduate school, I read one of the first important mathematical treatments of political science by William Reichert. Reichert claimed to prove results, and the proof of one of the results was wrong. I discovered the error and became enormously excited that for the first time in my experience in political science, I could make the statement “This is wrong”: not “I think this is wrong” or “It’s my opinion that it’s wrong” or “I don’t agree.” It was just wrong.
Tell me about the development of your prediction model.
It’s been in the making my entire career. In my dissertation, I studied strategies of opposition parties in coalition governments, and I started to think about how people form coalitions and what makes some cohere and others fall apart. Alliances are just another form of coalitions. I began to formulate the first formal, mathematical model of alliance formation that could be tested empirically and could predict a very basic thing: would a country choose to stay out of a war between two other parties or would it join a side, and if so, which side would it join? Forecasting elements came in punctuated parts; I saw how to translate the basic logic of the war model into something that could be applied to policy forecasting. I realized that I could estimate the probability of one side or another winning in any head-to-head contest.
Are you surprised at how adaptable your model is proving?
I was surprised. It was a revelation to me that wars, corporate mergers, political party decisions are all the same problem. And I’m surprised by how well the model works because I know all of its warts! Of course, the model doesn’t apply to arenas where individuals are making choices without any need for negotiating, such as the market. It is restricted to arenas where people have to either coordinate with each other or coerce each other.
You’re very good at obviating criticism. Has your approach been a hard sell?
It’s polarizing. There are people who hold me in high regard, and there are people who wish I would go away. They think this is the wrong way to study politics. My view is: dare to be embarrassed. If you have a better way—great; I’d be happy to throw this stuff in the garbage. I gave a talk in February where I predicted that Ayatollah Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s power was going to decline around now. Given recent events, my predictions haven’t embarrassed me, but they could have. And I urge others to take the same risk.
There’s been a lot of attention on road crashes involving young people, and research at the University of Adelaide’s Centre for Automotive Safety has found young drivers are twice as likely to have an accident during their first few months on their P’s.
Learners need fifty hours of supervised driving before getting their Provisional license, but the study found it is many hundreds of hours before young drivers become competent behind the wheel.
Peter talked to Craig Kloeden from the Adelaide Unviersity.
Belated Book Review: Ramblings of the Disoriented Mind
Novelist Marwa Rakha on women and breaking ranks with the mainstream
Marwa Rakha – Loudly and Freely (AlexAgenda Interview)
Marwa Rakha: Simply Shocking (Cleo Magazine – March 2009)
My First Cover: Interview for Expat’s Guide
Tadweena, an enterprise that promises well
Amira Al Hussaini of Global Voices Online give me a push
Marwa Rakha: Through Nigerian Lenses
Shaimaa Gamal: Loved it
Al Ahram Hebdo (French Review)
On The English Pen World Atlas
Jessyz: Disappointed
Gilded Serpent: Love and Romance, Egyptian Style
Maha Youssuf: Another Poisonous Book Hits Cairo Book Stores
The Poison Tree – Reviews on Amazon.com
The wonderful Krystofer James Van Slyke at redPear, attended LaidOffCamp this summer and was inspired to do more to help out the hard hit valley. If you or someone you know has recently been let go, or are in danger of being let go, you may be interested in “Career Advancement Using Today’s Technology”- a workshop that Krystofer has organized.
The Phoenix Community Alliance is donating computer labs and meeting space. Krystofer will be discussing Web-Based Tools for Business, and we’ll be providing a breakout which presents New Tools for a New Market. AllStaff will wrap it all up with a discussion on how to get an interview and how to set yourself apart. The best part- it’s all free!
For all the details visit http://www.maggiorecm.com/go/careertech. If you’d like to attend, please shoot me an email at jennifer at mcmaz dot com. Thanks
Last week we announced the winner of our Early Bird Registration competition – Andrew Robinson.
He was one of 94 first-time LIANZA members who joined up between 1 June & 31 July 2009, and was therefore entered into the draw to win a full Early Bird Registration.
We thought you might be interested to know a bit more about our lucky winner of this competition, so I threw some curly questions his way last week and now you get to find out a little more about the mysterious Andrew Robinson, Libraries & Customer Services Manager, South Waikato District Council.
Andrew Robinson, South Waikato District Council
So, how long have you worked in the library sector?
“On and off for about 12 years, just started my second year as manager. I have been out of the library scene for a while but definitely enjoying being back.”
What’s the coolest job title you have had?
“Apart from my current one? Systems Administrator Linux/Unix”
What did you want to be when you grew up?
“A professional Basketball player, no wait an Astronaut, nah definitely Batman”
What’s your favourite blog?
“Too busy for blogging but ramonesblog.com – great blog for the world’s greatest band. Of course if someone starts a blog about being a basketball playing superhero who flies a space shuttle – I’m in!”
Favourite NZ holiday destination?
“Anywhere there’s sun, surf and sand.”
Last movie you saw (and did you love it or hate it?)
“Harry Potter and the Half blood prince, it was decidedly average. As usual in Book vs Movie, Book wins!”
Last book you read (and who would you recommend it to?)
“The Hour I First Believed by Wally Lamb, pub. 2008. Awesome story, fans of Jodi Picoult will enjoy but it has a lot more substance.”
What was the last book you didn’t finish?
“Dune…twice. 3rd time lucky maybe” (mj interjects – my response for this is Lord of the Rings, I can’t finish even the first book)
Have you ever been to Christchurch? If yes, what do you remember most about it? If no, what do you know about Christchurch?
“No I haven’t been to Christchurch so really looking forward to it and to be honest my knowledge is sketchy. I know they have a river and some hills, a cathedral, a retired Wizard, and an average rugby team.”
What are you looking forward to at this year’s Conference?
“I always enjoy the keynote speakers and I’m looking forward to hearing Richard Stallman. What’s particularly beneficial to me is the exposure to what’s happening in libraries and the trends that are emerging, it should be a great conference!”
Thanks to Andrew for answering our questions. We’re hoping that he’ll take away more than a few sketchy ideas about a southern city with a retired wizard and a cathedral.
If you have any other questions that you’d like to throw Andrew’s way, post them here and we’ll see if we can’t get an answer out of him before conference.
Regi Claire and Leila (Copyright Scotsman Publishing Limited)
I am so happy that Regi Claire agreed to this interview. Because her events were on those days that I stupidly agreed to work! Her anthology of short stories, Fighting It, inspired by a recent battle with cancer, was published by Two Ravens Press earlier this year. There is a very personal account of her illness on the Vulpes Libris blog. Today, however, we are concentrating on more positive things, delighted that Regi is now well and can present at the EIBF 2009 where she was sharing the stage with Andrea McNicoll, whose novel Moonshine In The Morning won the 2009 Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust First Novel Award (formerly known as the Scottish Council Award!).
LS: How did you become part of the 2009 Programme?
RC: It’s a simple story. I was invited by the organisers.
LS: If you’re part of a double-bill, what do you think of the book you’re paired with?
RC: Moonshine in the Morning, by Andrea McNicoll, provides an interesting glimpse of village life in Thailand, focusing on ‘ordinary’ people. Similarly, the stories in my new book, Fighting It, are mostly set abroad (Switzerland, where I grew up, France, the Canaries, the Middle East) and they all give voice to men and women who seem otherwise condemned to suffer in silence.
LS: How did you prepare for the EIBF event? Have you obsessed about your ticket sales?
RC: I had two events this year.
For the Amnesty reading, I very slightly edited the texts (a prose letter and two poems) that I’d been given, then practised reading them several times. I always prepare a lot more when it comes to performing other people’s work as I am keenly aware of my responsibility towards them.
For the reading with Andrea, I knew I’d have to edit the story I’d chosen so it would fit the time slot of 15 to 20 minutes. I started preparing the day before the gig, cutting quite a bit and rewriting a few sentences, reading the text back to myself in a whisper, then performing it aloud – a couple of times to myself and once more to my husband, Ron Butlin, and our dog. I did some final editing on the bus to and from an evening event, then fine-tuned the story one last time in bed, after midnight.
I don’t think it’s worth spending time (and energy!) worrying about sales.
LS: It’s the morning of your event – what happened beforehand? Are there any rituals to be followed before you step on the stage?
RC: A mad dash as usual. For my own event (at 10.15 am): getting up too late, then running to the bus stop, putting on the earrings and final touches of makeup on the bus while scan-reading the story one last time, then another sprint from the bus stop in George Street to the authors’ yurt.
Can going for a quick pee and brushing my hair be called rituals?
LS: How did the events go?
RC: Both events went really well. Pretty much a full house each time, and lots of books sold.
The Amnesty reading was very moving as, thanks to the charity ‘The Medical Foundation for the Care and Resettlement of the Victims of Torture’, the authors of the texts were present and introduced themselves to the audience before we read (‘we’ being Moris Fahri, Otto de Kat, Ron Butlin, and myself). One young man, from Iran, struck us all as exceptionally gifted, and I’m quite sure we’ll hear more of him. His pen name is ‘Dusk’.
The event with Andrea worked very well as we seemed to complement each other perfectly, with respect to both our work and our style of performance. The literary agent Jenny Brown was excellent at introducing us and then chairing the Q and A session. So, only happy memories!
LS: How did you choose which extract to read?
RC: I chose a story that was listener-friendly – with dialogue, vivid descriptions and action – fun to perform and which I hadn’t read at a venue in Edinburgh before.
LS: Book-signing – love it or hate it?
RC: I enjoy interacting with my readers, and find it a rather humbling experience. I always make sure to have a quick word with them rather than just sign their books like a machine.
LS: What did you do after the book-signing?
RC: My husband and a very good Swiss friend of mine went back to the authors’ yurt for a chat with Andrea and Jenny, and a celebratory drink with some other writer friends (even though it wasn’t quite lunchtime yet…).
LS: How do you feel about book festivals in general? The EIBF in particular?
RC: I love book festivals, both as a performer and as a reader. They provide a wonderful opportunity for authors to meet their audience as well as fellow authors. Having lived in Scotland for the past 16 years, I’ve got to know many of the writers based here, but the EIBF (with its magic authors’ yurt) has allowed me to make the acquaintance of authors from (much) further afield, which has been really exciting. This time round, we made friends with a writer from New York, George Dawes Greene, who set up ‘The Moth’. We ended up going out for dinner with him and some friends three evenings in a week.
LS: Did you attend any other book festival events?
RC: Yes, quite a few. My husband’s events, of course, but also several others. So far Margaret Drabble, Ian Rankin, A L Kennedy, Alasdair Gray, (The European premiere of) The Moth, and the James Tait Black Memorial Prizes (the latter was held during a power failure, which meant that the chairman, judges and winners had to speak/read by torchlight, without mikes – quite an experience!). I enjoyed them all and hope to have learned from each of them in a different way. And I’m looking forward to hearing Dubravka Ugresic, Frank Gardner and Margaret Atwood over the coming days.
LS: Thanks, Regi. Would you mind telling me (in comments) the title of the story you read? I’ll be reading your anthology during my Short Story September and I’d like to relive the atmosphere in the Spiegeltent at Charlotte Square.
